The Euro’s Effecton Trade Imbalances

When does trade become a one-way relationship? We study bilateral trade balances for a sample of 18 European countries over the period from 1948 through 2008. We find that, with the introduction of the euro, trade imbalances among euro area members widened considerably, even after allowing for perma...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Berger, Helge
Other Authors: Nitsch, Volker
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2010
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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651 4 |a Iceland 
653 |a Economic Integration 
653 |a Trade surpluses 
653 |a Balance of trade 
653 |a International Trade Organizations 
653 |a Short-term Capital Movements 
653 |a Trade Policy 
653 |a Current Account Adjustment 
653 |a Financial Aspects of Economic Integration 
653 |a Trade deficits 
653 |a Trade balance 
653 |a Currency 
653 |a Exports and Imports 
653 |a Plurilateral trade 
653 |a International economics 
653 |a Foreign Exchange 
653 |a International Policy Coordination and Transmission 
653 |a International trade 
653 |a Empirical Studies of Trade 
653 |a Exchange rates 
653 |a Trade and Labor Market Interactions 
653 |a Foreign exchange 
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520 |a When does trade become a one-way relationship? We study bilateral trade balances for a sample of 18 European countries over the period from 1948 through 2008. We find that, with the introduction of the euro, trade imbalances among euro area members widened considerably, even after allowing for permanent asymmetries in trade competitiveness within pairs of countries or in the overall trade competitiveness of individual countries. This is consistent with indications that pair-wise trade tends to be more balanced when nominal exchange rates are flexible. Intra-euro area imbalances also seem to have become more persistent with the introduction of the euro, some of which is linked to labor market inflexibility. Reviewing the direction of imbalances, we find that bilateral trade surpluses are decreasing in the real exchange rate, decreasing in growth differentials, and increasing in the relative volatility of national business cycles. Finally, countries with relatively higher fiscal deficits and less flexible labor and product markets exhibit systematically lower trade surpluses than others