Surges

This paper examines why surges in capital flows to emerging market economies (EMEs) occur, and what determines the allocation of capital across countries during such surge episodes. We use two different methodologies to identify surges in EMEs over 1980-2009, differentiating between those mainly cau...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Qureshi, Mahvash
Other Authors: Ghosh, Atish, Kim, Jun, Zalduendo, Juan
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2012
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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653 |a Interest rates 
653 |a Financial services 
653 |a Currency 
653 |a Current Account Adjustment 
653 |a Long-term Capital Movements 
653 |a Exports and Imports 
653 |a International Investment 
653 |a Foreign Exchange 
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653 |a Banks and Banking 
653 |a Short-term Capital Movements 
653 |a Exchange rate arrangements 
653 |a Balance of payments 
653 |a Real interest rates 
653 |a International economics 
653 |a Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects 
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700 1 |a Zalduendo, Juan 
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520 |a This paper examines why surges in capital flows to emerging market economies (EMEs) occur, and what determines the allocation of capital across countries during such surge episodes. We use two different methodologies to identify surges in EMEs over 1980-2009, differentiating between those mainly caused by changes in the country's external liabilities (reflecting the investment decisions of foreigners), and those caused by changes in its assets (reflecting the decisions of residents). Global factors-including US interest rates and risk aversion¡-are key to determining whether a surge will occur, but domestic factors such as the country's external financing needs (as implied by an intertemporal optimizing model of the current account) and structural characteristics also matter, which explains why not all EMEs experience surges. Conditional on a surge occurring, moreover, the magnitude of the capital inflow depends largely on domestic factors including the country's external financing needs, and the exchange rate regime. Finally, while similar factors explain asset- and liability-driven surges, the latter are more sensitive to global factors and contagion