Disinflation and the Recession-Now-Versus-Recession-Later Hypothesis Evidence From Uruguay

Both analytical models and casual empiricism suggest that the timing of the recessionary costs associated with inflation stabilization in chronic inflation countries may depend on the nominal anchor which is used. Under money-based stabilization, the recession occurs at the beginning of the program,...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Végh Gramont, Carlos
Other Authors: Hoffmaister, Willy
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 1995
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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245 0 0 |a Disinflation and the Recession-Now-Versus-Recession-Later Hypothesis  |b Evidence From Uruguay  |c Carlos Végh Gramont, Willy Hoffmaister 
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300 |a 46 pages 
651 4 |a Uruguay 
653 |a Monetary policy 
653 |a Exchange rates 
653 |a Disinflation 
653 |a Foreign exchange 
653 |a Nominal anchors 
653 |a Monetary economics 
653 |a Foreign Exchange 
653 |a Monetary Policy 
653 |a Prices 
653 |a Currency 
653 |a Deflation 
653 |a Money and Monetary Policy 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Inflation 
653 |a Price Level 
653 |a Real exchange rates 
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520 |a Both analytical models and casual empiricism suggest that the timing of the recessionary costs associated with inflation stabilization in chronic inflation countries may depend on the nominal anchor which is used. Under money-based stabilization, the recession occurs at the beginning of the program, while under exchange rate-based stabilization the recession occurs later in the program. This paper provides a first attempt to formally test this hypothesis using a vector-autoregression model for Uruguay. The impulse response of output to different stabilization policies is broadly consistent with the “recession-now-versus-recession-later” hypothesis. The evidence also suggests, however, that the effectiveness of a monetary anchor in reducing inflation is hindered by the high degree of dollarization of the Uruguayan economy