Systemic Risk and Asymmetric Responses in the Financial Industry

To date, an operational measure of systemic risk capturing non-linear tail comovement between system-wide and individual bank returns has not yet been developed. This paper proposes an extension of the so-called CoVaR measure that captures the asymmetric response of the banking system to positive an...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: López-Espinosa, Germán
Other Authors: Moreno, Antonio, Rubia, Antonio, Valderrama, Laura
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2012
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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245 0 0 |a Systemic Risk and Asymmetric Responses in the Financial Industry  |c Germán López-Espinosa, Antonio Rubia, Laura Valderrama, Antonio Moreno 
260 |a Washington, D.C.  |b International Monetary Fund  |c 2012 
300 |a 38 pages 
651 4 |a United States 
653 |a Finance, Public 
653 |a Public Administration 
653 |a Banks 
653 |a Finance 
653 |a Dynamic Treatment Effect Models 
653 |a Banks and banking 
653 |a Financial statements 
653 |a Financial sector policy and analysis 
653 |a Mortgages 
653 |a Vector autoregression 
653 |a Time-Series Models 
653 |a Systemic risk 
653 |a Financial risk management 
653 |a Accounting 
653 |a Public Sector Accounting and Audits 
653 |a Financial Institutions and Services: General 
653 |a Public financial management (PFM) 
653 |a Banking 
653 |a Financial reporting, financial statements 
653 |a Econometrics 
653 |a Econometrics & economic statistics 
653 |a Multiple Variables: General 
653 |a Government securities 
653 |a Depository Institutions 
653 |a Commercial banks 
653 |a Econometric analysis 
653 |a Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models 
653 |a Financial institutions 
653 |a General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation 
653 |a Micro Finance Institutions 
653 |a Diffusion Processes 
653 |a General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) 
653 |a Treasury bills and bonds 
653 |a Banks and Banking 
653 |a Investments: General 
653 |a Dynamic Quantile Regressions 
653 |a Investment & securities 
653 |a Finance: General 
653 |a Financial Crises 
700 1 |a Moreno, Antonio 
700 1 |a Rubia, Antonio 
700 1 |a Valderrama, Laura 
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520 |a To date, an operational measure of systemic risk capturing non-linear tail comovement between system-wide and individual bank returns has not yet been developed. This paper proposes an extension of the so-called CoVaR measure that captures the asymmetric response of the banking system to positive and negative shocks to the market-valued balance sheets of individual banks. For the median of our sample of U.S. banks, the relative impact on the system of a fall in individual market value is sevenfold that of an increase. Moreover, the downward bias in systemic risk from ignoring this asymmetric pattern increases with bank size. The conditional tail comovement between the banking system and a top decile bank which is losing market value is 5.4 larger than the unconditional tail comovement versus only 2.2 for banks in the bottom decile. The asymmetric model also produces much better estimates and fitting, and thus improves the capacity to monitor systemic risk. Our results suggest that ignoring asymmetries in tail interdependence may lead to a severe underestimation of systemic risk in a downward market