Threshold Effects of Sovereign Debt Evidence From the Caribbean

This paper addresses the issue of threshold effects between public debt and economic growth in the Caribbean. The main finding is that there exists a threshold debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio of 55-56 percent. Moreover, the debt dynamics begin changing well before this threshold is reache...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Drakes, Lisa
Other Authors: Craigwell, Roland, Greenidge, Kevin, Thomas, Chrystol
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2012
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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245 0 0 |a Threshold Effects of Sovereign Debt  |b Evidence From the Caribbean  |c Lisa Drakes, Chrystol Thomas, Roland Craigwell, Kevin Greenidge 
260 |a Washington, D.C.  |b International Monetary Fund  |c 2012 
300 |a 23 pages 
651 4 |a Jamaica 
653 |a National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General 
653 |a Debt Management 
653 |a Public finance & taxation 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a External debt 
653 |a Econometrics 
653 |a Expenditures, Public 
653 |a Fiscal stance 
653 |a Threshold analysis 
653 |a International economics 
653 |a Public Finance 
653 |a Econometrics & economic statistics 
653 |a Fiscal Policy 
653 |a Panel Data Models 
653 |a Truncated and Censored Models 
653 |a Debts, External 
653 |a Public debt 
653 |a Debts, Public 
653 |a Threshold Regression Models 
653 |a Sovereign Debt 
653 |a Fiscal policy 
653 |a Exports and Imports 
653 |a Switching Regression Models 
653 |a International Lending and Debt Problems 
653 |a Spatio-temporal Models 
653 |a Expenditure 
653 |a Debt 
653 |a Econometric analysis 
700 1 |a Craigwell, Roland 
700 1 |a Greenidge, Kevin 
700 1 |a Thomas, Chrystol 
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520 |a This paper addresses the issue of threshold effects between public debt and economic growth in the Caribbean. The main finding is that there exists a threshold debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio of 55-56 percent. Moreover, the debt dynamics begin changing well before this threshold is reached. Specifically, at debt levels lower than 30 percent of GDP, increases in the debt-to-GDP ratio are associated with faster economic growth. However, as debt rises beyond 30 percent, the effects on economic growth diminishes rapidly and at debt levels reaching 55-56 percent of GDP, the growth impacts switch from positive to negative. Thus, beyond this threshold, debt becomes a drag on growth