Model Uncertainty. Learning, and the Gains from Coordination

The paper considers gains from international economic policy coordination when there is uncertainty concerning the functioning of the world economy, but also learning about the “true” model on the part of policymakers. The paper reports estimates of plausible alternative versions of a standard, two-...

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Bibliographic Details
Corporate Author: International Monetary Fund
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 1988
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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260 |a Washington, D.C.  |b International Monetary Fund  |c 1988 
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653 |a Inflation 
653 |a Foreign exchange 
653 |a Exchange rates 
653 |a Prices 
653 |a Price Level 
653 |a Foreign Exchange 
653 |a Money 
653 |a Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General 
653 |a Floating exchange rates 
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653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Money and Monetary Policy 
653 |a Demand for Money 
653 |a Monetary economics 
653 |a Currency 
653 |a Deflation 
653 |a Demand for money 
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520 |a The paper considers gains from international economic policy coordination when there is uncertainty concerning the functioning of the world economy, but also learning about the “true” model on the part of policymakers. The paper reports estimates of plausible alternative versions of a standard, two-country model. Activist policy (either coordinated or uncoordinated) may produce large welfare losses in the absence of learning, if policymakers believe in the wrong model; hence exogenous money targets and freely flexible exchange rates may be best. However, model learning (from observations on macroeconomic variables) causes coordinated policies to dominate activist uncoordinated policies or exogenous money targets