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150128 ||| eng |
| 020 |
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|a 9781484315910
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| 100 |
1 |
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|a Catão, Luis
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| 245 |
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|a External Liabilities and Crises
|c Luis Catão, Gian Milesi-Ferretti
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| 260 |
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|a Washington, D.C.
|b International Monetary Fund
|c 2013
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| 300 |
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|a 37 pages
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| 651 |
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4 |
|a Portugal
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| 653 |
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|a International economics
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| 653 |
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|a Current Account Adjustment
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| 653 |
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|a International Investment
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| 653 |
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|a Current account
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| 653 |
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|a Foreign direct investment
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| 653 |
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|a Finance
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| 653 |
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|a Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
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| 653 |
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|a Balance of payments
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| 653 |
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|a Economic & financial crises & disasters
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| 653 |
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|a International Lending and Debt Problems
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| 653 |
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|a Long-term Capital Movements
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| 653 |
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|a External debt
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| 653 |
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|a Financial Crises
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| 653 |
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|a Current account balance
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| 653 |
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|a Sovereign Debt
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| 653 |
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|a International Financial Markets
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| 653 |
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|a Short-term Capital Movements
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| 653 |
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|a Financial crises
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| 653 |
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|a Exports and Imports
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| 653 |
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|a Debt
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| 653 |
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|a Debt Management
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| 653 |
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|a Financial Risk Management
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| 653 |
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|a Debts, External
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| 653 |
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|a Investments, Foreign
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| 700 |
1 |
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|a Milesi-Ferretti, Gian
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| 041 |
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7 |
|a eng
|2 ISO 639-2
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| 989 |
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|b IMF
|a International Monetary Fund
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| 490 |
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|a IMF Working Papers
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| 028 |
5 |
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|a 10.5089/9781484315910.001
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| 856 |
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|u https://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2013/113/001.2013.issue-113-en.xml?cid=40545-com-dsp-marc
|x Verlag
|3 Volltext
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|a 330
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| 520 |
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|a We examine the determinants of external crises, focusing on the role of foreign liabilities and their composition. Using a variety of statistical tools and comprehensive data spanning 1970-2011, we find that the ratio of net foreign liabilities (NFL) to GDP is a significant crisis predictor, and the more so when it exceeds 50 percent in absolute terms and 20 percent of the country-specific historical mean. This is primarily due to net external debt--the effect of net equity liabilities is weaker and net FDI liabilities seem if anything an offset factor. We also find that: i) breaking down net external debt into its gross asset and liability counterparts does not add significant explanatory power to crisis prediction; ii) the current account is a powerful predictor, either measured unconditionally or as deviations from conventionally estimated “norms” iii) foreign exchange reserves reduce the likelihood of crisis more than other foreign asset holdings; iv) a parsimonious probit containing those and a handful of other variables has good predictive performance in- and out-of-sample. The latter result stems largely from our focus on external crises stricto sensu
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