Does Fiscal Policy Affect Interest Rates? Evidence from a Factor-Augmented Panel

This paper reconsiders the effects of fiscal policy on long-term interest rates employing a Factor Augmented Panel (FAP) to control for the presence of common unobservable factors. We construct a real-time dataset of macroeconomic and fiscal variables for a panel of OECD countries for the period 198...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Dell'Erba, Salvatore
Other Authors: Sola, Sergio
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2013
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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651 4 |a United States 
653 |a Interest rates 
653 |a Public debt 
653 |a Finance 
653 |a Public finance & taxation 
653 |a Financial services 
653 |a Debt Management 
653 |a Short term interest rates 
653 |a Fiscal Policy 
653 |a Debts, Public 
653 |a Debt 
653 |a Fiscal policy 
653 |a Globalization: Macroeconomic Impacts 
653 |a Sovereign Debt 
653 |a International Policy Coordination and Transmission 
653 |a Banks and Banking 
653 |a Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt 
653 |a Econometric and Statistical Methods: General 
653 |a Macroeconomics 
653 |a Banking 
653 |a Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects 
653 |a Long term interest rates 
653 |a Public Finance 
653 |a Central bank policy rate 
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520 |a This paper reconsiders the effects of fiscal policy on long-term interest rates employing a Factor Augmented Panel (FAP) to control for the presence of common unobservable factors. We construct a real-time dataset of macroeconomic and fiscal variables for a panel of OECD countries for the period 1989-2012. We find that two global factors—the global monetary and fiscal policy stances—explain more than 60 percent of the variance in the long-term interest rates. Compared to the estimates from models which do not account for global factors, we find that the importance of domestic variables in explaining long-term interest rates is weakened. Moreover, the propagation of global fiscal shocks is larger in economies characterized by macroeconomic and institutional weaknesses