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150128 ||| eng |
| 020 |
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|a 9781484353363
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| 100 |
1 |
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|a Bluedorn, John
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| 245 |
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0 |
|a Do Asset Price Drops Foreshadow Recessions?
|c John Bluedorn, Jörg Decressin, Marco Terrones
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| 260 |
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|a Washington, D.C.
|b International Monetary Fund
|c 2013
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| 300 |
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|a 35 pages
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| 651 |
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4 |
|a United States
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| 653 |
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|a Investment & securities
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| 653 |
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|a Stock exchanges
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| 653 |
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|a Financial institutions
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| 653 |
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|a Business Fluctuations
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| 653 |
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|a Non-bank Financial Institutions
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| 653 |
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|a Asset prices
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| 653 |
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|a Property & real estate
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| 653 |
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|a Financial Forecasting and Simulation
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| 653 |
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|a Investments: Stocks
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| 653 |
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|a Institutional Investors
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| 653 |
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|a Real Estate
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| 653 |
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|a Housing
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| 653 |
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|a Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation
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| 653 |
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|a Stock markets
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| 653 |
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|a Price Level
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| 653 |
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|a Financial markets
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| 653 |
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|a Pension Funds
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| 653 |
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|a Cycles
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| 653 |
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|a Financial Instruments
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| 653 |
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|a Deflation
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| 653 |
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|a Stocks
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| 653 |
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|a Housing prices
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| 653 |
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|a Inflation
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| 653 |
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|a Housing Supply and Markets
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| 653 |
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|a Oil prices
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| 653 |
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|a Finance: General
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| 653 |
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|a Macroeconomics
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| 653 |
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|a Prices
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| 653 |
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|a General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data)
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| 653 |
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|a Energy: Demand and Supply
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| 653 |
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|a Finance
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| 700 |
1 |
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|a Decressin, Jörg
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| 700 |
1 |
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|a Terrones, Marco
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| 041 |
0 |
7 |
|a eng
|2 ISO 639-2
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| 989 |
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|b IMF
|a International Monetary Fund
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| 490 |
0 |
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|a IMF Working Papers
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| 028 |
5 |
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|a 10.5089/9781484353363.001
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| 856 |
4 |
0 |
|u https://elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2013/203/001.2013.issue-203-en.xml?cid=40976-com-dsp-marc
|x Verlag
|3 Volltext
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| 082 |
0 |
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|a 330
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| 520 |
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|a This paper examines the usefulness of asset prices in predicting recessions in the G-7 countries. It finds that asset price drops are significantly associated with the beginning of a recession in these countries. In particular, the marginal effect of an equity/house price drop on the likelihood of a new recession can be substantial. Equity price drops are, however, larger and are more frequent than house price drops, making them on average more helpful as recession predictors. These findings are robust to the inclusion of the term-spread, uncertainty, and oil prices. Lastly, there is no evidence of significant bias resulting from the rarity of recession starts
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