Macroeconomic Effects of Sovereign Restructuring in a Monetary Union A Model-based Approach

We assess the macroeconomic effects of a sovereign restructuring in a small economy belonging to a monetary union by simulating a dynamic general equilibrium model. In line with the empirical evidence, we make the following three key assumptions. First, sovereign debt is held by domestic agents and...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Forni, Lorenzo
Other Authors: Pisani, Massimiliano
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2013
Series:IMF Working Papers
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: International Monetary Fund - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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245 0 0 |a Macroeconomic Effects of Sovereign Restructuring in a Monetary Union  |b A Model-based Approach  |c Lorenzo Forni, Massimiliano Pisani 
260 |a Washington, D.C.  |b International Monetary Fund  |c 2013 
300 |a 42 pages 
653 |a Sovereign bonds 
653 |a Payment Systems 
653 |a Public debt 
653 |a Public finance & taxation 
653 |a Regimes 
653 |a Fiscal Policy 
653 |a Debts, Public 
653 |a Open Economy Macroeconomics 
653 |a Exports and Imports 
653 |a International Lending and Debt Problems 
653 |a External debt 
653 |a Standards 
653 |a Cycles 
653 |a Bonds 
653 |a Government and the Monetary System 
653 |a Short-term Capital Movements 
653 |a Monetary economics 
653 |a Current Account Adjustment 
653 |a Debt Management 
653 |a Financial Aspects of Economic Integration 
653 |a Debt 
653 |a General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) 
653 |a Investments: Bonds 
653 |a International economics 
653 |a Debts, External 
653 |a Sovereign Debt 
653 |a Monetary Systems 
653 |a Business Fluctuations 
653 |a Foreign exchange market 
653 |a Investment & securities 
653 |a Foreign currency exposure 
653 |a Monetary unions 
653 |a Public Finance 
653 |a Money and Monetary Policy 
653 |a Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: General 
700 1 |a Pisani, Massimiliano 
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520 |a We assess the macroeconomic effects of a sovereign restructuring in a small economy belonging to a monetary union by simulating a dynamic general equilibrium model. In line with the empirical evidence, we make the following three key assumptions. First, sovereign debt is held by domestic agents and by agents in the rest of the monetary union. Second, after the restructuring the sovereign borrowing rate increases and its increase is fully transmitted to the borrowing rate paid by the domestic agents. Third, the government cannot discriminate between domestic and foreign agents when restructuring. We show that the macroeconomic effects of the restructuring depend on: (a) the share of sovereign bonds held by residents in the country as compared to that held by foreign residents, (b) the increase in the spread paid by domestic agents and (c) its net foreign asset position at the moment of the restructuring. Our results also suggest that the sovereign restructuring implies persistent reductions of output, consumption and investment, that can be large, in particular if the share of public debt held domestically is large, the private foreign debt is high and the spread paid by the government and the households does increase