Statistical Demography and Forecasting

Sustainability of pension systems, intergeneration fiscal equity under population aging, and accounting for health care benefits for future retirees are examples of problems that cannot be solved without understanding the nature of population forecasts and their uncertainty. Similarly, the accuracy...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Alho, Juha, Spencer, Bruce (Author)
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: New York, NY Springer New York 2005, 2005
Edition:1st ed. 2005
Series:Springer Series in Statistics
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: Springer eBooks 2005- - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
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505 0 |a Sources of Demographic Data -- Sampling Designs and Inference -- Waiting Times and Their Statistical Estimation -- Regression Models for Counts and Survival -- Multistate Models and Cohort-Component Book-Keeping -- Approaches to Forecasting Demographic Rates -- Uncertainty in Demographic Forecasts: Concepts, Issues, and Evidence -- Statistical Propagation of Error in Forecasting -- Errors in Census Numbers -- Financial Applications -- Decision Analysis and Small Area Estimates 
653 |a Statistical Theory and Methods 
653 |a Population Economics 
653 |a Population and Demography 
653 |a Statistics  
653 |a Demography 
653 |a Epidemiology 
653 |a Population 
653 |a Population / Economic aspects 
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520 |a Sustainability of pension systems, intergeneration fiscal equity under population aging, and accounting for health care benefits for future retirees are examples of problems that cannot be solved without understanding the nature of population forecasts and their uncertainty. Similarly, the accuracy of population estimates directly affects both the distributions of formula-based government allocations to sub-national units and the apportionment of political representation. The book develops the statistical foundation for addressing such issues. Areas covered include classical mathematical demography, event history methods, multi-state methods, stochastic population forecasting, sampling and census coverage, and decision theory. The methods are illustrated with empirical applications from Europe and the U.S. For statisticians the book provides a unique introduction to demographic problems in a familiar language. For demographers, actuaries, epidemiologists, and professionals in related fields, the book presents a unified statistical outlook on both classical methods of demography and recent developments. To facilitate its classroom use, exercises are included. Over half of the book is readily accessible to undergraduates, but more maturity may be required to benefit fully from the complete text. Knowledge of differential and integral calculus, matrix algebra, basic probability theory, and regression analysis is assumed. Juha M. Alho is Professor of Statistics, University of Joensuu, Finland, and Bruce D. Spencer is Professor of Statistics and Faculty Fellow at the Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University. Both have contributed extensively to statistical demography and served in advisory roles and as statistical consultants in the field