Demand for Imports in Venezuela : A Structural Time Series Approach

Using structural time series models, Cuevas estimates common stochastic trends of real GDP and imports in Venezuela from 1974–2000. The real imports trend drifts upward at almost twice the rate of growth of GDP. This highlights the powerful structural tendency toward increasing imports in Venezuela....

Full description

Main Author: Cuevas, A. Mario
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Washington, D.C The World Bank 2002, 2002
Subjects:
Online Access:
Collection: World Bank E-Library Archive - Collection details see MPG.ReNa
LEADER 02618nmm a2200433 u 4500
001 EB000328927
003 EBX01000000000000000176015
005 00000000000000.0
007 cr|||||||||||||||||||||
008 ||| eng
100 1 |a Cuevas, A. Mario 
245 0 0 |a Demand for Imports in Venezuela  |b A Structural Time Series Approach  |c Cuevas, A Mario 
260 |a Washington, D.C  |b The World Bank  |c 2002, 2002 
300 |a Online-Ressource (1 online resource (20 p.)) 
653 |a Climate Change 
653 |a Currencies and Exchange Rates 
653 |a Demand 
653 |a Domestic Economic Activity 
653 |a Economic Stabilization 
653 |a Economic Theory and Research 
653 |a Economy 
653 |a Endogenous Variables 
653 |a Environment 
653 |a Exchange Rate Increases 
653 |a Exchange Rate Level 
653 |a Exogenous Variable 
653 |a External Balance 
653 |a Finance and Financial Sector Development 
653 |a Growth Rate 
653 |a Imbalances 
653 |a Macroeconomic Management 
653 |a Macroeconomics and Economic Growth 
700 1 |a Cuevas, A. Mario 
041 0 7 |a eng  |2 ISO 639-2 
989 |b WOBA  |a World Bank E-Library Archive 
856 |u http://elibrary.worldbank.org/content/workingpaper/10.1596/1813-9450-2825  |3 Volltext  |x Verlag  |3 Volltext 
082 0 |a 300 
520 |a Using structural time series models, Cuevas estimates common stochastic trends of real GDP and imports in Venezuela from 1974–2000. The real imports trend drifts upward at almost twice the rate of growth of GDP. This highlights the powerful structural tendency toward increasing imports in Venezuela. The author also explicitly estimates common stochastic cycles, which he finds to have 5 and 17 year periods. In addition, he finds that a 1 percent real exchange rate appreciation leads to a 0.4 percent increase in imports. And in the long-run, 1 percent real GDP growth is associated with 1.7 percent real imports growth. The author also shows that the GDP elasticity of imports uniformly falls with cycle period, with the elasticity reaching 4.55 at the frequency associated with the 5–year cycle. A powerful imports responsiveness at the higher cycle frequency is associated with the recurrence of external imbalances in Venezuela. This paper—a product of the Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela Country Management Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region—is part of a larger effort in the region to encourage research on macroeconomic issues. The author may be contacted at mcuevas@worldbank.org